Bitcoin Halving Forecast in 2024

  • 16:41 Dec 28, 2023
Bitcoin Halving Forecast in 2024

Halving is one of the predetermined processes in the cryptocurrency market that occurs systematically every 4 years. The main condition for the next halving event is the creation of a new 210,000 blocks. After reaching this point, the mining difficulty for each new block increases, while the reward is halved. In other words, miners understand that after Bitcoin halving, their profitability decreases, and competition increases. To prevent this, the value of BTC increases simultaneously.

Main Risks for Miner Profitability

The Bitcoin forecast after halving is based on the analysis of the following risks:

  • Reduction in daily mining emissions upon reaching a new halving event.
  • Increase in mining difficulty, requiring more significant computing power to maintain a stable mining level.
  • Electricity cost, which varies in different countries and regions, depending on associated macroeconomic aspects, ultimately affecting the Bitcoin price after halving.

Particular attention should be paid to the last point. For example, amid recent issues in Kazakhstan, a significant number of miners stopped operating, particularly in the energy sector. Meanwhile, China remains the most promising country for mining, where the cost of energy resources allows for greater profitability. Consequently, all industrial mining farms are concentrated there.

Bitcoin Growth After Halving

To understand how the BTC price is formed after halving, one must consider not only the equal reduction in the cost of mining and an increase in the exchange rate. Even with these input data, miner profitability decreases. However, this is compounded by an increase in the network's hash rate. On average, after each halving, it increases by 33%. So, the Bitcoin price forecast after the 2024 halving is based on a comprehensive evaluation of all the conditions listed. The optimal cost is x2 from the initial price and +33% to cover the difference in mining difficulty. This balances the price to reasonable values. But there are other factors that can directly or indirectly contribute to changes in the Bitcoin price, such as:

  • Market whales' behavior;
  • Information background;
  • Actual supply and demand (conditions can be artificially created where the Bitcoin price will inevitably rise or fall);
  • Market sentiment;
  • Volatility and liquidity concerning other digital currencies and fiat;
  • Greed and fear index.

Any of these aspects can lead to an unexpected correlation in value. This includes announcements from major global companies, the introduction of new digital technologies that make Bitcoin mining easier (a vivid example is the emergence of ASICs).

Real Bitcoin Price Perspectives After 2024 — Expert Opinions

Relying on current forecasts from experts and analysts, one can assume that after the 2024 halving, the value of Bitcoin will be equivalent to $58,500. By 2028, the price will rise to $230,000.

However, Tim Draper claims that the BTC price will be $250,000 already next year. Carol Alexander and Alister Milne, whose previous forecasts were the closest to the actual situation, suggest that by the end of 2024, the Bitcoin price will not exceed $50,000. However, by 2028, there is still a chance to expect a price within the range of $230,000 to $280,000.

Considering all forecasts, it is always important to remember about prudent risk diversification and the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Only in this way can one achieve the expected profit and minimize drawdown risks.

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