Marathon Digital: A Risky Bet as Mining Costs Outstrip Bitcoin Value

  • Sergey Maga
  • 29 August, 2023 07:37
Marathon Digital: A Risky Bet as Mining Costs Outstrip Bitcoin Value

Marathon Digital Holdings, a leading Bitcoin mining company, is under scrutiny for trading at a premium despite negative profits in its mining operations. Investors are becoming wary as Marathon Digital consistently mines Bitcoin at a cost 26-78% higher than the cryptocurrency’s market price. This discrepancy poses questions about the company’s sustainability and actual value, according to seekingalpha.

Marathon Digital’s current net asset value (NAV) stands at $4.09 per share. However, the company’s stock is trading at $10.55, representing a staggering 158% premium to its NAV. This comes as a stark contrast to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, trading at a 25% discount to its NAV, offering a much more cost-effective way to get Bitcoin exposure.

The financials also reveal alarming figures. Marathon Digital’s production costs for the second quarter stood at $113 million. They produced 2,926 Bitcoins at a mining cost of $38,615 per Bitcoin, which is 48% higher than the current market price of $26,130. Thus, the mining business currently holds negative value.

To add to this, the company has $128 million in cash, enough only for one more quarter of production. This cash constraint might compel the company to either start selling Bitcoin to continue mining or to issue more shares, both of which can be detrimental to current shareholders.

While Bitcoin price sensitivity analysis suggests some upside if Bitcoin’s price skyrockets, the gains for Marathon Digital would still lag far behind the gains in Bitcoin. Despite this, analysts do not recommend shorting the stock, as it has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin prices. But for investors seeking better returns and value, the stock currently does not make for an appealing choice.

Considering all these factors, Marathon Digital may be a high-risk investment at this point, especially for those who can directly invest in Bitcoin or other more cost-effective investment vehicles.

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