Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Threatens Mining Profitability, Analysts Warn

Bitcoin’s next halving in April 2024 may put miners in a tough spot. This process, which happens every four years, will cut mining rewards in half, according to cryptoslate. 

In the past, halvings led to significant Bitcoin price rallies. After the 2012, 2016, and 2020 events, the price of Bitcoin rose by 8,450%, 290%, and 560%, respectively. However, this trend might not continue.

Jaran Mellerud from Hashrate Index predicts a grim future for half of Bitcoin miners. These miners, he says, lack efficiency in their operations. After the halving, the break-even electricity price for the most common mining machine will drop to $0.06/kWh. With 40% of miners operating above this cost, their profits could disappear.

Wolfie Zhao from TheMinerMag echoes this sentiment. For miners with inefficient operations, net profits might turn negative. These difficulties could pile up on top of the industry’s existing debt, which stands between $4.5 billion and $6 billion.

Moreover, June saw record mining difficulty, indicating increased competition. Kevin Zhang from Foundry states that BTC prices would have to rise to $50,000-$60,000 next year for miners to maintain current profit margins.

Despite these challenges, miners are getting ready. They’re cutting power costs and negotiating pricing with providers. Yet, the Bloomberg report warns that the cost of mining one BTC could double to $40,000. This dramatic increase could force many miners out of the market.

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