Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $250K by year-end

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO at Maelstrom, published a market outlook. In his essay, titled “The BBC,” Hayes predicted Bitcoin could hit $250,000 before the year ends.

He explained that Bitcoin’s tech layer is stable, with no bugs or major upgrades pending. Therefore, price action depends mostly on changes in global monetary liquidity.

Liquidity will drive Bitcoin’s momentum

According to Hayes, the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely inject more dollars into the economy. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China is expected to ease monetary policy.

As a result, more yuan will enter the market. This expansion of global liquidity could push capital toward scarce digital assets like Bitcoin.

The local bottom is behind us

“If my outlook is correct, the $76,500 low is behind us,” Hayes wrote. “My target is $250,000 by year-end. Sure, price forecasts aren’t exact, but I’d bet on $110,000 before $76,500.”

Hayes added that his model focuses on macro liquidity cycles rather than market sentiment. With central banks loosening policy, Bitcoin may benefit from capital inflows.

If economic conditions continue to evolve as expected, Bitcoin could outperform traditional assets in 2025.