BTC and the perspective of energy consumption
Even though the question of bitcoin's energy consumption is raised very often, we are talking about the current situation. Arcane Research shares its vision of what the future holds.
First of all, the key factors that affect consumption are:
- the value of the coin
- commission rate
- amount of income
- cost of electricity
Each impact of the above items on the situation in the future is subject to changes that are difficult to predict. In particular, the price of BTC is subject to significant volatility, the extent of which we have seen during the last 12 months. It is important to remember that the increase in value will increase the income from mining and attract new participants, which will strengthen the competition.
As for commissions, not many people pay attention to them at the moment, as they often have minimal value. However, in the future, their influence will increase.
Experts believe that the share of costs from the income of miners, which they spend on electricity, will only increase. Also worth mentioning here is the high level of competition, which will constantly increase due to the low entry threshold. According to the report, by 2040, the cost share could be 71%.
Regarding energy sources, there is an assumption that in the future bitcoin mining will be produced from surplus energy that is not used in industry, as it will be much more profitable than tapping into the grid. Thus, it would help reduce the impact of inflationary processes.
The report of Arcane Research simulated several scenarios in which the cost of the first cryptocurrency reached from $ 1000 thousand to $ 1 million. As a result, the researchers concluded that a serious increase in energy consumption is possible only if the cost is equivalent to several million dollars. It will happen if bitcoin is recognized as a means of payment and is in demand worldwide. For this to happen, digital gold's capabilities need to be highly valued. Thus, BTC will have to take over all the functions of money.
Speaking about the growth of energy consumption, it is worth remembering that even in this case, the share of mining will account for only 0.36% of the global scale. Thus, the declarations of many bitcoin opponents, about the energy expenditure on mining are unjustified.